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☆ Morning Bid: Markets wary Powell may undermine rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. The disconnect between financial markets and central banks has only deepened as central banks push back against talk of rate cuts while markets take in the relatively more benign inflation data of recent weeks. That helped to embolden markets to take on rate-cut bets. Markets are now pricing in a 46% chance of the central bank cutting rates in March, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Speakers: Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Waller, Powell, Elon Musk, Megan Greene, Christine Lagarde, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Ankur, Fed, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Europe, Asia, France, UK, Germany, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks stall after VIX hits pre-COVID low
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. As U.S. markets return in earnest from the long Thanksgiving weekend, Friday's shortened session threw up a remarkable milestone. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered just under 4.50% first thing, about 10 basis points up from Wednesday's intraday low. Deutsche Bank on Monday said it expected a whopping 175bp of Fed rate cuts in 2024 as a mild recession there hits - leaving the policy rate at just 3.63% at yearend. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Wall, Friday's, Jerome Powell, MSCI's, Christine Lagarde, Bernadette Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Global, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Property, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, Chaoyang Public Security, Health, Beijing, Exchange, Reuters, Beijing Stock Exchange, Dallas Fed, . Treasury, Central Bank, Sciences, Share, Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, yearend, Asia, European, Gaza, Beijing

☆ Morning Bid: Caution prevails as Gaza truce begins
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, November 13, 2023. Futures indicated European bourses were set for a muted open and with a bare economic calendar, markets are likely to drift as holiday season kicks off. For British consumers though, Black Friday is likely to be about hunting for refurbished and pre-owned bargains to save cash. Israel and Hamas start a four-day truce on Friday morning with the release of a first group of 13 Israeli women and child hostages expected later in the day. Reuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Friday:Germany's Q3 GDP data, German lfo business climate data for NovemberReporting By Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ankur Banerjee, clawing, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Ankur, Bank of Japan, Barclays, Reuters, Hamas, World Health Organization, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Israel, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Tokyo

☆ Morning Bid: Frail yen teeters as US CPI looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Economists polled by Reuters expect headline U.S. consumer price inflation to slow to 3.3% in October from 3.7% in September, with the core inflation rate that strips out volatile components seen unchanged from September at 4.1%. If the battered currency breaks through last year's trough of 151.94, it would mark a 33-year low. In the corporate world, investors will keep an eye on Europe's most valuable company, Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO). Shares of the Danish drugmaker rose on Monday after data showed that the heart-protective benefits of its popular obesity drug Wegovy are not solely due to weight loss. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:Economic events: UK average weekly earnings for September, Euro Zone Q3 flash GDP, Euro Zone employment flash Q3Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ankur Banerjee, David Cameron's, Jerome Powell, Shunichi Suzuki, Edmund Klamann Organizations: U.S, Japan, Ankur, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Japanese Finance, Novo Nordisk, Walmart, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Britain, Danish

☆ Morning Bid: 'Not confident' Powell drags markets lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Since the Fed left rates unchanged last week, markets had increasingly grown confident that the peak in U.S. rates was in sight. But up stepped Powell to squash any hopes of an impending rate cut. "[The Fed] is committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time," Powell said. That led stocks lower, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) skidding 1% to their lowest in a week. The rise in yields boosted the dollar, which is headed for its best week against the yen in three months.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Powell, Christine Lagarde, Walt Disney, policymaker Joachim Nagel, SNB's Thomas Moser, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Monetary Fund's, REUTERS, Ankur, European bourses, Treasury, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China's, U.S . Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, European, U.S, Commercial Bank of China's U.S, Norway, Sweden

☆ Morning Bid: Bitcoin is back, stocks wobble
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A bitcoin is seen in an illustration picture taken at La Maison du Bitcoin in Paris, France, June 23, 2017. Treasuries remain in the headlines with yields on 10-year notes briefly hitting 5% on Monday before quickly declining. The Japanese currency was at 149.57 per dollar having touched the symbolic 150 level on Friday and on Monday. Meanwhile, bitcoin prices soared on the back of rising speculation about the possibility of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:Economic events: Oct flash PMI for Germany, France, UK and Euro zone; UK August ILO unemployment rateEarnings: Barclays, Puma, Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet.

Persons: Benoit Tessier, Ankur Banerjee, Treasuries, Sam Holmes Organizations: La Maison du, REUTERS, Ankur, Microsoft, Google, Barclays, ICE, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Puma, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, Israel, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Britain, United States, Germany

☆ Morning Bid: Big Tech reports as bond yields recoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The two tech giants report after the bell on Tuesday, with Meta (META.O) following on Wednesday and Amazon (AMZN.O) on Thursday. Partly lifted by the year's artificial intelligence craze, the tech behemoths have clearly flattered year-to-date gains of 10% in the overall S&P500. And yet the seemingly endless squeeze in bond markets since midyear has seen megacap indexes (.NYFANG) retreat some 12% from their highs for the year. The upshot of the whole picture is to give U.S. stock futures a lift ahead of the open on Tuesday - with Asia and European bourses in positive territory too as bond markets stabilised. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields held about 4.83% - some 19 basis points below Monday's peak at 5.02%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Bill Ackman, Clark, Chubb, Paccar, Centene, Sherwin, Williams, Archer, David Evans Organizations: NVIDIA Corp, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Big Tech, Microsoft, Meta, Treasuries, U.S, Bank of England, Treasury, Britain's FTSE, Barclays, P Global, Richmond Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Texas Instruments, Verizon, General Electric, NextEra Energy, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Halliburton, Dow, Waste Management, Daniels, Midland, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, United States, Asia, European, Britain's, Philadelphia, Danaher, Fiserv, Kimberly, Spotify, Dover, Nucor

☆ German defense contractor postpones IPO on eve of debut
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

German defense contractor Renk on late Wednesday announced it would indefinitely postpone its initial public offering on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange scheduled for the following morning. "In the past days, the market environment has clouded noticeably," the company said in a statement, providing no further details. Shares were set to be offered in a price range between 15 euros ($15.77) and 18 euros, with a total placement volume between 405 million and 486 million euros. It reported an increase in audited gross profit from 124.5 million euros to 164.8 million euros in the fiscal year ending on Dec. 31 2022. European bourses had a mixed first half of the year, with funds raised through listings on the Paris Stock Exchange plunging 92%, while the London Stock Exchange held steady.

Persons: Renk, Susanne Wiegand, bourses, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown Organizations: Frankfurt Stock Exchange, CNBC, Triton, Reuters, Paris Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, Schott Pharma, Hargreaves Locations: Augsburg, Germany, Ukraine, Frankfurt

☆ Morning Bid: Fed leaves shoe dangling in policy parade
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

At least eight major central banks are meeting on Thursday. Central banks in South Africa and Turkey are also meeting. Futures now show the implied Fed policy rate for the end of next year at a new cycle high of 4.85% - up a whopping 35 basis points in just over a week. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:* Bank of England policy decision; South Africa Reserve Bank policy decision, Central Bank of Turkey policy decision. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks* Philadelphia Fed's September business survey, U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. Aug existing home sales, U.S. Q2 current account estimate.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Robin Brooks, Brooks, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Darden, Christina Fincher Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Swiss National Bank, Bank of, Fed, for International Finance, Treasury, Swiss, Africa Reserve Bank, Central Bank of, European Central Bank, Factset, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Norwegian, Bank of England, South Africa, Turkey, Central Bank of Turkey, Philadelphia

☆ Morning Bid: Japan jolt as inflation forks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A man walks past the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 17, 2023. "If we judge that Japan can achieve its inflation target even after ending negative rates, we'll do so," Ueda said. The yen surged 1% against the dollar, knocking the U.S. currency back more generally (.DXY) on the foreign exchange markets. If Japan's does tighten further by yearend, it comes as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank rate hike campaigns are coming to halt. News of an expected return of headline Chinese consumer price inflation to positive territory last month and above-forecast August lending data helped mainland shares (.CSI300) higher, with the yuan bouncing back from 16-year lows.

Persons: Issei Kato, Mike Dolan, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Alibaba, Daniel Zhang, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, U.S, Tokyo Stock, Nikkei, Global, Treasury, yearend, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Fed, CPI, OpenAI, Wall Street, SoftBank Group, underwriters, Bank of England, Oracle, Graphics, Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Hong Kong, Ottawa

☆ Morning Bid: Restive markets simmer after oil sideswipe
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 20, 2023. That's a moment in the whole disinflation story as it virtually wipes out the negative annual base effect so powerful this year in helping drag headline inflation rates back down. The more complicated inflation picture comes against the week's downbeat business surveys from Europe and Japan. That take was reinforced overnight by a New York Fed study that suggested the theoretical 'neutral' interest rate keeping the economy at equilibrium continued to fall in the second quarter. The energy picture saw Asia and European bourses in the red again, with Japan's Nikkei (.N225) bucking the trend.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan Roiled, Lorie Logan, Susan Collins, Mike Dolan, John Stonestreet Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Bank of Canada, New, New York Fed, NY, Japan's Nikkei, Dallas Federal, Boston Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, That's, Europe, Japan . U.S, New York, Asia, European, Canada

☆ Morning Bid: Early Labor Day for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 1 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanLabor Day comes a bit earlier for markets this year, with Friday's release of the critical August jobs report coming just ahead of Monday's end-of-season U.S. holiday. A series of updates showed private sector hiring slowing in August, while job openings fell back in July and layoffs jumped. On the flipside, more up-to-date weekly jobless claims fell again and the consensus payrolls estimate has ticked higher from 150,000 only last week. Going into Friday's report, futures markets remain split and stand 50-50 on the chances of another hike by November. And whatever they think about peak rates, markets are also grappling with the prospect of rates staying up here for some time.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, JP Morgan, Saola, Gita Gopinath, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Alexander Smith Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Labor, JP, Atlanta, HK, European Central Bank, Broadcom, Treasury, P Global, Cleveland Federal, Atlanta Fed, Reuters Graphics, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Hong Kong, Europe

☆ Morning Bid: Bonds burn on as China rate cut underwhelms
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A sign is seen outside the 11 Wall St. entrance of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 1, 2021. Although prompted by a deepening property sector bust and worrying economic activity undershoot, China's latest widely expected interest rate cut on Monday was surprisingly small - underscoring concerns that official efforts to shore up the economic malaise are still just piecemeal. The People's Bank of China lowered its one-year lending rate by only 10 basis points to 3.45% - less than the 15bp cut forecast - and it left five-year rates unchanged. UBS became the latest global bank to slash China's annual economic growth forecast for this year - down to 4.8% from 5.2%. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered below last week's highs on Monday, however, and Wall St stock futures were firmer ahead of the open.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan There's, China's, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, disinflation, Germany's, Crest Nicholson, Mike Dolan, Bernadette Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, People's Bank of, Stock Connect, HK, UBS, Treasury, Federal, Jackson, Wall St, BRICS Summit, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, People's Bank of China, South Africa, Brazil, Russia, India, Ukraine, Wall, Johannesburg

☆ Bonds bruised, China stocks and rouble sink
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With seasonal trading volumes so thin and the events and data diary bare today at least, there's a danger of over-interpreting recent market developments. But the backup in long-term U.S. bond yields over the past couple of weeks despite relatively unchanged expectations for Federal Reserve policy moves has clearly unsettled investors. Although 2-year Treasury yields remain below 5% and are lower than they were at midyear, 10-year Treasury yields continue to probe 9-month highs around 4.20% and the yield curve has disinverted by some 20 basis points this month as a result. China's yuan hit its lowest since June as traders look to a possible easing of 1-year interest rates on Tuesday. Events to watch for on Monday:* U.S. Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month billsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by XXXX <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Fitch, Goldman Sachs, Russia's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Micron Technology, Federal Reserve, United States, AAA, Treasury, . Treasury, Kremlin, Shanghai, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, United, midyear, China, Japan, Ukraine, Hong Kong, Asia

The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the Frankfurt stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 17, 2023. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) closed up 0.1% ahead of inflation readings from Germany, China and the U.S. later this week, all likely to drive expectations on how long interest rates could remain high. Europe's aerospace and defence index (.SXPARO) hit a record high, rising 1.0%, with Italy's Leonardo (LDOF.MI) and London-listed Melrose (MRON.L) up 3.1% and 2.6% respectively. Major European bourses were mixed, with London's commodity-heavy FTSE 100 down 0.1%, while France's blue-chip CAC 40 index (.FCHI) rose 0.1%. Pressuring Germany's DAX (.GDAXI), Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) dropped 6.1%, having shuttled between gains and losses throughout the day.

Persons: Daniela Hathorn, Italy's Leonardo, Anthi Tsouvali, Germany's DAX, Shashwat Chauhan, Sruthi Shankar, Amruta, Varun, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Defence, Siemens Energy, U.S, Aurubis AG, Capital.com, Bavarian, Melrose, State Street Global Markets, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, China, Danish, London, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Bank of Japan excites, Dow unlucky, Intel jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Specifically, the central bank said it would offer to buy 10-year JGBs at 1.0% in fixed-rate operations, instead of the previous rate of 0.5% - tolerating the wider band for bond market borrowing rates. With July core inflation in Tokyo falling back to a 10-month low, the need for tightening may be ebbing anyway. Friday's data is expected to show another drop in the Fed's favoured core PCE inflation gauge in June. For markets more broadly, Friday seems a little scattergun so far after a heavy week of macro policy and corporate news. U.S. Treasury yields fell back from two-week highs hit after the punchy U.S. economy readouts and central bank moves, with the 2-to-10 year yield curve steepening as recession fears abate.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Dow Jones bluechips, T Rowe Price, Nick Macfie Organizations: Bank of Japan, Dow, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Treasury, ECB, Intel, U.S, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Proctor, Gamble, Colgate Palmolive, Franklin Resources, Newell Brands, Church, Dwight, Charter Communications, Dallas Fed, University of Michigan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall St, Tokyo, Wall, Asia, Centene, Franklin

The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) ended 0.7% higher, rising for the third straight session. Irish stocks (.ISEQ) jumped 2.1%, leading the advance among its continental peers. Irish stocks were boosted by gains in Kingspan (KSP.I) which jumped 15.7% after forecasting record profit for the first half of the year. Shares of China-exposed luxury firms including LVMH (LVMH.PA), Hermes (HRMS.PA) and Richemont (CFR.S) rose between 2% and 2.3% while industrial stocks (.SXNP) also sensitive to China advanced 1.0%. Mercedes-Benz Group (MBGn.DE) shares rose 0.7% after sales in the second quarter rose 6% year-on-year on the back of demand for all-electric and top-end vehicles.

Persons: Michael Hewson, Richard Flax, Matteo Allievi, Shreyashi Sanyal, Rashmi Aich, Nivedita, Emelia Organizations: Miners, U.S . Federal Reserve, LVMH, CMC Markets, tomorrow's U.S, Nordic Semiconductor, Daimler, Benz Group, Thomson Locations: China, Kingspan, Europe, U.S, tomorrow's, Britain, Gdansk, Amruta, Bangalore

☆ Morning Bid: Bruised bonds relying on disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

While that data took the edge off the red-hot private-sector jobs readout the previous day, it left a bruised bond market still wary of further Federal Reserve interest rate rises and praying disinflation may stay its hand after one more hike later this month. Although Treasury bond volatility (.MOVE) backed off six-week highs on Friday, its weekly rise was the biggest since the wild swings around the banking stress in March. Stock futures were in the red again ahead of Monday's open despite gains in Chinese and European bourses. British markets - where the UK government bond market selloff last week had been worse than in Treasuries - remained edgy. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, disinflation, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden, Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Bailey, Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Ed Osmond Organizations: Wednesday's, Treasury, NATO, HSBC, Sunday . Bank of England, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, Bank of England, . Treasury, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Vilnius, British, Treasuries, South Korea, Ukraine

☆ Morning Bid: Data-hit bond markets end summer lull
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On top of that, there were signs that activity at dominant U.S. service sector firms picked up steam again last month too. Friday's release of the Labor Department's monthly national payrolls report will seal the picture. U.S. Treasury yields hit 16-year highs above 5%, German equivalents hit their highest in 15 years and British gilt yields scaled 2008 peaks. The VIX (.VIX) gauge of implied Wall St volatility - which had been peculiarly subdued right through last month - jumped to its highest since June 1. Crucially, 2-year Treasury yields edged back below 5%.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Lorie Logan, payrolls, HSI, Janet Yellen's, Elon, Lorrie Logan, Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Emelia Sithole Organizations: readouts, Federal, Labor, Dallas Fed, Fed, Treasury, Nikkei, Twitter, Meta, Dallas Federal, Central Bank, Bank of England, NATO, Vilnius Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, China, Canada, New York, Vilnius Reuters

☆ Morning Bid: Dogged central banks rein in risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets have been here before over the past year - continually underestimating the economy's resilience and Fed's trajectory. There was far less ambiguity in moves from Europe's central banks on Thursday. The Swiss National Bank raised rates by 25bp earlier, as expected, but also left the door open for more tightening. And Norway's central bank surprised with an aggressive 50bp rise to a 15-year high of 3.75% and signaled another move in August. In the emerging market world, Turkey was expected to more than double its 8.5% interest rate in a post-election macroeconomic policy reset.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Powell, Raphael Bostic, BoE, Britain's, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Thomas Barkin, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: Federal, Financial, Fed, Atlanta Fed, Yahoo Finance, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Treasury, The Times, Bank of, U.S, Kansas City Federal, Chicago Fed, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, Accenture, Darden, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Britain, Europe's, Turkey, Mexico

☆ Morning Bid: Showdown on the ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

With world markets still at an impasse on the extent of the economic slowdown and chance of recession, the U.S. debt ceiling impasse remains unresolved - and Tuesday's showdown at the White House is one of the few opportunities left to resolve it. Biden meets Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy for the first time since February. There are only six days this month when the House and the Senate are in session when Biden is in Washington. Longer-term Treasury yields remain under wraps, however, with 2-year yields hovering just under 4%. DEBT CEILINGBeyond the debt ceiling row, the picture of the wider economy remains equivocal.

☆ Morning Bid: Volatile news, not markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

While the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates again on Wednesday, the move could be its last. So in a holiday-strewn month around the world, the VIX (.VIX) - Wall St's so-called 'fear gauge' of the implied stock market volatility for the month ahead - hit its lowest level on Monday since November 2021. Even though it ticked back up a bit above 16 overnight, it remains three full points below its 33-year historical average. For macro markets, the Fed decision is complicated by the debt ceiling and banking backdrop. March job openings numbers later on Tuesday will give an indication of just how tight the labor market remains.

☆ Morning Bid: Cloud control - tech trumps banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Alphabet (GOOGL.O) also gained 1% as it too trumpeted gains in cloud services and AI, alongside plans for a $70 billion buyback. With Meta (META.O) results out later, its stock was up 2% and Amazon (AMZN.O) raced ahead 4%. PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) shares jumped 15% in extended trading after the regional lender said deposits have been building recently. And in Europe, Standard Chartered (STAN.L) shares bucked otherwise dour markets on a forecast-beating 21% jump in first-quarter profits. U.S. Treasury markets continued to rally, with yields on 2-year notes dropping below 4% Tuesday and testing 3.9% early today.

☆ Morning Bid: Crowded bonds unnerved
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

This has some wondering if the recent dash for cash and top-rated bonds has become a bit crowded and how much more tightening central banks have to do. As we move into the weeds of the first-quarter U.S. earnings season, it's been a mixed bag so far. That clearly unnerved UK government bonds - where 10 year yields jumped 10bps - but it also jarred sovereign bonds around the world. Elsewhere, further signs of healing were evident in the global bank funding market. Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) sold $1 billion of additional tier-1 debt, the first major global bank to sell the risky securities since similar bonds issued by Credit Suisse were wiped out last month.

☆ Morning Bid: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides. With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand. Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling .

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